2023-04-05 13:01:03
"NOT VERY OPTIMIST" PICTURE FOR Sp500
If we collect all the facts together, then there is a not “very optimistic” picture for Sp500.
There are so many facts in favor of the fall and almost all of them are known to you, it makes no sense to list them.
First target
3600. (
Forecast will revision at this level)
Forecast for Sp500 is “
negative”
But this post will be with a positive connotation.
Let's talk about the option in which the forecast does not come true:
Inflation Now there is a moment that can be called the “inflation pie”.
The inflation target of the Fed is 2% (now 6%), that is, Powell's assessment is “very bad” so far.
But a month ago, he could have succeeded, but there was an embarrassment ...
After the bankruptcy of SVB, the situation changed.
Now the Fed will have to print billions, maybe trillions of dollars to fight the banking crisis.
Of course, the growing balance is a very inflationary factor, now there is no point in raising the rate, as the "printing press" will work.
The inflation from the new QE program will be superimposed on the past (unhealed inflation) with a second layer.
The war on inflation is lost.
Many assets can be greatly revalued because of this.
In this case, Sp500 may start to absorb liquidity and grow along with the rest of the assets.
Perhaps this is the only scenario in which assets can begin to grow.
But there is another scenario, it is more unpredictable ...
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